As Jakarta braces for the afternoon, all eyes are on the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), set to reveal the export, import, and trade balance data for March 2024 today, Monday (22/4/2024). A comprehensive survey conducted by Bloomberg among economists anticipates an average trade surplus of US$1.14 billion. The projections vary, with the highest estimate at US$1.73 billion and the lowest indicating a deficit of US$410 million. Adding to the discourse, David Sumual, Chief Economist at BCA, forecasts a robust trade surplus of US$1.7 billion for the same period.
Discussing the potential factors influencing this outlook, Sumual highlights last year’s significant peaks in both imports and exports during March. He attributes this spike to the onset of Ramadan in March 2023 and a surge in coal exports following China’s reopening. However, when examining the month-on-month trends, Sumual observes a positive trajectory in export and import performances for March 2024.
“On a month-to-month basis, we see growth in both exports and imports, primarily driven by the uptick in commodity prices. Notably, cocoa surged by 40%, CPO by 9%, alongside increases in coal, oil, and most other commodities,” Sumual explains.
Shedding light from another perspective, Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at Bank Permata, weighs in with his estimations. Pardede forecasts a trade surplus of US$1.63 billion for March 2024. He attributes this surplus to an improved export performance, witnessing an 8.05% month-on-month growth. However, he notes a contrasting -10.91% year-on-year contraction in export growth, primarily influenced by China’s economic dynamics.
“Demand from China is poised to rebound, as reflected by a significant 9.65% month-to-month increase in China’s imports from Indonesia in March 2024,” adds Josua, highlighting the potential resurgence in demand from Indonesia’s largest trading partner.
