Sydney — Australia is facing what analysts describe as an innovation crisis, with the nation slipping behind OECD peers in economic complexity, technology exports, and sovereign industrial capability. Despite producing world-class research and a thriving startup scene, only 1–5% of Australian startups successfully scale into mid-sized firms valued above US$50 million.
The problem, according to Forbes contributor Greg Miller, is not invention but growth. While accelerators, incubators, and tax incentives have created a steady flow of startups, Australia lacks the infrastructure to help them scale into globally competitive enterprises. By contrast, countries such as Israel, Sweden, and Canada have deliberately built scale-up ecosystems that generate jobs, exports, and sovereign resilience.
Australia currently ranks 105th out of 145 nations in Harvard’s economic complexity index, behind Botswana and Ivory Coast. Its R&D spending stands at 1.68% of GDP, well below the OECD average of 2.73%. Only 1% of the Australian tech workforce has experience in scaling businesses, compared with 17% in Singapore and 13% in the United States.
The stakes are high. Without sovereign companies capable of delivering on national missions—such as energy transition, housing, AI, and defence—Australia risks becoming a permanent consumer of foreign technologies. For example, the government estimates AU$1.5 trillion will be required by 2050 to reach net zero, but without domestic firms to design and export solutions, much of that value could flow offshore.
International models offer a blueprint. Canada’s MaRS Discovery District, for instance, has catalyzed 1,200 companies, 30,000 jobs, and AU$30 billion in GDP impact over two decades. Similar ecosystems in the UK, Sweden, and Germany were seeded by government but powered by private execution. Miller argues that Australia must now move from “Zero to One” to “One to One Hundred” by building a national scale-up platform aligned with its strategic missions.
The urgency is clear: every month of delay risks another cohort of startups stagnating or selling out to foreign buyers, taking intellectual property, jobs, and tax revenues with them. In an era where technological sovereignty is equated with national security, Australia’s ability to scale its innovations will determine its place in the global economy.
The choice, Miller concludes, is stark: either back Australian ideas to grow into global enterprises or watch others reap the benefits.
